Will Romania qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 59% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
59%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 15, 2031
1633 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Greece qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Greece qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Greece
KXWCQUAL-30-GRE
Cluster 2
Will Panama qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Panama qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Panama
KXWCQUAL-30-PAN
Cluster 3
Will Slovakia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Slovakia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Slovakia
KXWCQUAL-30-SVK
Cluster 4
Will Mexico qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Mexico qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Mexico
KXWCQUAL-30-MEX
Cluster 5
Will Ireland qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Ireland qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Ireland
KXWCQUAL-30-IRL
Cluster 6
Will Denmark qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Denmark qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Denmark
KXWCQUAL-30-DEN
Cluster 7
Will Korea Republic qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Korea Republic qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Korea Republic
KXWCQUAL-30-KOR
Cluster 8
Will South Africa qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will South Africa qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: South Africa
KXWCQUAL-30-RSA
Cluster 9
Will Czechia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Czechia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Czechia
KXWCQUAL-30-CZE
Cluster 10
Will North Macedonia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will North Macedonia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: North Macedonia
KXWCQUAL-30-MKD
Cluster 11
Will Italy qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Italy qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Italy
KXWCQUAL-30-ITA
Cluster 12
Will Switzerland qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Switzerland qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Switzerland
KXWCQUAL-30-SUI
Cluster 13
Will Canada qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Canada qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Canada
KXWCQUAL-30-CAN
Cluster 14
Will Northern Ireland qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Northern Ireland qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Northern Ireland
KXWCQUAL-30-NIR
Cluster 15
Will Qatar qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Qatar qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Qatar
KXWCQUAL-30-QAT
Cluster 16
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Bosnia and Herzegovina
KXWCQUAL-30-BIH
Cluster 17
Will Wales qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Wales qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Wales
KXWCQUAL-30-WAL
Cluster 18
Will Brazil qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Brazil qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Brazil
KXWCQUAL-30-BRA
Cluster 19
Will Scotland qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Scotland qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Scotland
KXWCQUAL-30-SCO
Cluster 20
Will Haiti qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Haiti qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Haiti
KXWCQUAL-30-HTI
Analysis
This probability estimates the chance Romania qualifies for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, currently valued at 17% based on market contracts. Romania must finish in the top two of their UEFA qualification group or win a playoff to reach the tournament. The market's assessment reflects Romania's moderate competitive level—ranked 46th globally as of 2026—against traditionally stronger European competitors. Qualification odds depend heavily on group composition and remaining matches through late 2025, when final qualifying rounds conclude. The probability could shift substantially based on Romania's performance in qualifying fixtures and potential strength of opponents they draw in their qualification group.
- ›Romania's current FIFA ranking (46th) and recent tournament history—last World Cup appearance was 1998, with mixed recent qualification campaigns
- ›Group draw strength in UEFA qualifying—Romania's odds vary significantly depending on which other teams are placed in their qualification group
- ›Head-to-head record and performance trends in 2024-2025 qualifying matches, which serve as direct indicators of competitive standing
- ›Comparison to similarly-ranked teams: Czechia trades at 55¢, Turkey at 20¢, and Albania at 21¢, suggesting market consensus on Romania's relative position
- ›Remaining qualifying match schedule and results through the 2025 qualification period, which will provide concrete data on team form and point totals
What moved the line
- Jul 22Mexico↓58pp92→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Czechia↑37pp18→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Greece↓34pp75→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Denmark↓34pp80→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Denmark↑34pp46→80¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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