SimpleFunctions

Bart Johnson · KXDWTSCAST-26OCT01

Bart Johnson is priced at 48¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 48¢ ask, 22¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXDWTSCAST-26OCT01.

Price history

48¢ current

+41¢
0¢25¢50¢
May 26, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Bart Johnson is officially announced to perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Bart Johnson

Rank

#2 of 16

Leader

Jenna Dewan 37¢

Range

3¢-37¢

Family volume

$13

Identifier

KXDWTSCAST-26OCT01-BAR

Jun 26, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 20m ago

Implied probability

48¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 26, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 20m ago

Bid

26¢

Ask

48¢

Spread

22¢

Reported volume

$47

Family rank

#2 of 16

16 outcomes · KXDWTSCAST-26OCT01

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

Family volume

$13

Orderbook snapshot

26 / 48¢

Kalshi
22¢ spread
BidSize
100¢151
26¢16
25¢250
24¢250
4¢816
AskSize
48¢251
50¢250
97¢5.0K
98¢47
99¢140

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Bart Johnson is officially announced to perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

Identifier

KXDWTSCAST-26OCT01-BAR

SF Signal
SF Index
506.44
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1012.9%

IY (No)

138.6%

Adj IY

506%

CRI

3

Overround

2.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1012.9%
138.6%
Adj IY
506%
3
Overround
2.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.