Will Madison Chock perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$686
19 contracts
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
145 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jackson Olson perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 2
Will Amber Glenn perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 3
Will Madison Chock perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 4
Will Evan Bates perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 5
Will Ilia Malinin perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 6
Will Mikaela Shiffrin perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 7
Will Chloe Kim perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Will Chloe Kim perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Chloe Kim
KXDWTSCAST-26OCT01-CHL
Cluster 8
Will Jordan Stolz perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 9
Will Nic Vansteenberghe perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 10
Will Brittany Cartwright perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 11
Will Donna Kelce perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 12
Will Gia Giudice perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 13
Will Jenna Dewan perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 14
Will Ginnifer Goodwin perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 15
Will Bart Johnson perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 16
Will Tyler Hynes perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 17
Will Taylor Lautner perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 18
Will Rob Gronkowski perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 19
Will Cam Newton perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Analysis
This market estimates a 6% chance that Madison Chock, a professional ice dancer, will compete as a contestant on Dancing with the Stars Season 35. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether ABC will cast her in the upcoming season. Key factors include whether producers select athletes from winter sports for the casting roster, Madison Chock's availability and interest in participating, and how the show's typical contestant pool is structured. The casting announcement—expected before the season's premiere—would definitively resolve this question. Until then, the low probability suggests market participants view her selection as unlikely relative to other potential contestants, though not impossible given the show's occasional recruitment of Olympic or professional athletes.
- ›Madison Chock's professional ice dancing career and Olympic visibility may make her appealing to producers seeking established athletes, but no public indication exists that she has been approached or expressed interest
- ›Dancing with the Stars Season 35 casting announcements typically occur 1-3 months before the premiere, which would provide the primary catalyst for resolution
- ›Comparable probability levels for other potential contestants (Amber Glenn 6%, Bow Wow 6%, Cam Newton 6%) suggest this represents a baseline threshold for speculative or lower-likelihood casting choices
- ›The show's historical tendency to cast celebrities with existing fan bases or media profiles rather than purely athletic credentials may work against selection of niche sports figures
- ›Official contestant rosters are publicly announced by ABC and major entertainment outlets, making this a fully resolvable binary event
What moved the line
- May 7Jackson Olson↑18pp4→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Amber Glenn↑18pp5→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Ilia Malinin↑16pp5→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Bart Johnson↑16pp5→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Cam Newton↑12pp5→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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