Will Madison Chock perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$83
19 contracts
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
57 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chloe Kim perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 2
Will Madison Chock perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 3
Will Livvy Dunne perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 4
Will Gia Giudice perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 5
Will Lance Bass perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 6
Will Taylor Lautner perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 7
Will Bart Johnson perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 8
Will Amber Glenn perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 9
Will Ashanti perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Will Ashanti perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Ashanti
KXDWTSCAST-26OCT01-ASH
Cluster 10
Will Bow Wow perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Will Bow Wow perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Bow Wow
KXDWTSCAST-26OCT01-BOW
Cluster 11
Will Brittany Cartwright perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 12
Will Cam Newton perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 13
Will Donna Kelce perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 14
Will Elana Meyers Taylor perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 15
Will Evan Bates perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 16
Will Flavor Flav perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 17
Will Ilia Malinin perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 18
Will Jenna Dewan perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Cluster 19
Will Jordan Stolz perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Analysis
This contract reflects the likelihood that figure skater Madison Chock will compete as a contestant on Dancing with the Stars Season 35. At 17%, the market suggests she is considered a moderately unlikely choice for the show, though not among the longest of long shots. Casting decisions for DWTS typically depend on several factors: celebrity status and public recognition, current availability and schedule conflicts, prior dance experience, and network preferences for demographic appeal. The primary driver of probability would be official confirmation of the Season 35 cast, which typically occurs in the weeks leading up to the season premiere. Until that announcement, uncertainty remains high. Comparatively, the market prices other potential contestants like Jenna Dewan at 58% and Bart Johnson at 31%, suggesting Chock is viewed as a less likely selection than some other candidates being evaluated. The resolution of this contract will occur when ABC officially announces the full contestant lineup for Season 35.
- ›Madison Chock's figure skating background could appeal to DWTS casting, but competitive ice dancers often have limited availability due to ongoing skating commitments
- ›The market prices Jenna Dewan at 58% and Bart Johnson at 31%, indicating Chock faces direct competition from other candidates considered more likely by traders
- ›Official cast announcements for DWTS Season 35 have not yet occurred as of early July 2026, leaving the primary resolution event pending
- ›Chock's public profile and media presence relative to other potential contestants influences her likelihood of selection by the network
- ›Prior cast selections have shown a mix of celebrities from entertainment, sports, and reality television, without clear predictable patterns for ice sports athletes
What moved the line
- Aug 4Cam Newton↓15pp45→30¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Jenna Dewan↓14pp59→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Jenna Dewan↑13pp30→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Gia Giudice↓12pp15→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Jenna Dewan↑12pp47→59¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026last 89% · 2d
- Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.70last 97% · 4d
- Will Donald Trump endorse Russell Fry in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 11, 2026last 95% · 5d
- Will Trump say "Airbnb / ABNB" before Aug 1, 2026last 6% · 5d
- Will Donald Trump pardon between 3 and 9 people before May 1, 2026last 27% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.