Betty McCollum · KXMNPRIMARY-04D26
Betty McCollum is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 98¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXMNPRIMARY-04D26.
Price history
99¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If Betty McCollum wins the nomination for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party to contest the 2026 MN-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Betty McCollum
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Betty McCollum 98¢
Range
3¢-98¢
Family volume
$120
Identifier
KXMNPRIMARY-04D26-BMCC
Aug 9, 2026, 5:19 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
98¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXMNPRIMARY-04D26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$120
Orderbook snapshot
98 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Betty McCollum wins the nomination for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party to contest the 2026 MN-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMNPRIMARY-04D26-BMCC
Event family
KXMNPRIMARY-04D26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$120
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Betty McCollum 98¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.