Bill Cassidy · KXVOTELAKE-28
Bill Cassidy is priced at 26¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 8 inside KXVOTELAKE-28.
Price history
26¢ current
+14¢Contract brief
If Bill Cassidy votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Bill Cassidy
Rank
#3 of 8
Leader
Rand Paul 46¢
Range
2¢-46¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXVOTELAKE-28-BCAS
Jun 23, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$305
Family rank
#3 of 8
8 outcomes · KXVOTELAKE-28
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Bill Cassidy votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXVOTELAKE-28-BCAS
Event family
KXVOTELAKE-28.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Rand Paul 46¢
Current share
29%
Rand Paul
kalshi · KXVOTELAKE-28-RPAU
Susan Collins
kalshi · KXVOTELAKE-28-SCOL
Bill Cassidy
kalshi · KXVOTELAKE-28-BCAS
Lisa Murkowski
kalshi · KXVOTELAKE-28-LMUR
Mitch McConnell
kalshi · KXVOTELAKE-28-MMCC
John Fetterman
kalshi · KXVOTELAKE-28-JFET
Thom Tillis
kalshi · KXVOTELAKE-28-TTIL
Ruben Gallego
kalshi · KXVOTELAKE-28-RGAL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.