Will Rand Paul vote for Kari Lake
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
555 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mitch McConnell vote for Kari Lake
Will Mitch McConnell vote for Kari Lake?: Mitch McConnell
KXVOTELAKE-28-MMCC
Cluster 2
Will Bill Cassidy vote for Kari Lake
Will Bill Cassidy vote for Kari Lake?: Bill Cassidy
KXVOTELAKE-28-BCAS
Cluster 3
Will John Fetterman vote for Kari Lake
Will John Fetterman vote for Kari Lake?: John Fetterman
KXVOTELAKE-28-JFET
Cluster 4
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Kari Lake
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Kari Lake?: Lisa Murkowski
KXVOTELAKE-28-LMUR
Cluster 5
Will Rand Paul vote for Kari Lake
Will Rand Paul vote for Kari Lake?: Rand Paul
KXVOTELAKE-28-RPAU
Cluster 6
Will Susan Collins vote for Kari Lake
Will Susan Collins vote for Kari Lake?: Susan Collins
KXVOTELAKE-28-SCOL
Cluster 7
Will Thom Tillis vote for Kari Lake
Will Thom Tillis vote for Kari Lake?: Thom Tillis
KXVOTELAKE-28-TTIL
Analysis
This market estimates a 75% probability that Senator Rand Paul will vote to confirm Kari Lake for a position requiring Senate approval. The high probability reflects Paul's general alignment with Lake on policy issues and his voting record on similar nominations, though it also acknowledges meaningful uncertainty about his final position. Key factors driving the probability include Paul's libertarian positions versus Lake's record, the composition and preferences of the broader Senate, and the specific details of Lake's nomination and Senate floor dynamics. The main resolution point will be when the Senate holds a confirmation vote, at which time Paul's actual vote becomes observable and the market settles. Until then, new information about Lake's positions, Senate negotiations, or statements from Paul himself could shift market expectations.
- ›Rand Paul's historical voting patterns on similar nominations from Republican presidents and whether this aligns with Lake's stated policy positions
- ›The overall Senate vote margin and whether the outcome appears predetermined, which could influence Paul's positioning or voting decision
- ›Public statements from Paul regarding Lake's nomination or related policy areas that would indicate his likely position
- ›The specific portfolio or position Lake is nominated for, as Paul's vote likelihood may vary significantly by role (executive, judicial, etc.)
- ›Changes in broader political dynamics between the nomination announcement and scheduled Senate floor vote that could shift Paul's calculus
What moved the line
- Jun 23Susan Collins↑14pp19→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Lisa Murkowski↓6pp23→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Lisa Murkowski↑6pp17→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Rand Paul↑6pp45→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Mitch McConnell↓5pp22→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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