Billy Bob Thornton · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO
Billy Bob Thornton is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 10 inside KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO.
Price history
15¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If Billy Bob Thornton is on the list of nominees for Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Billy Bob Thornton
Rank
#9 of 10
Leader
Noah Wyle 95¢
Range
6¢-95¢
Family volume
$235
Identifier
KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-BIL
Jun 21, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$235
Family rank
#9 of 10
10 outcomes · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO
Closes
Jul 8, 2027
Family volume
$235
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Billy Bob Thornton is on the list of nominees for Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 8, 2027
Identifier
KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-BIL
Event family
KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$235
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Noah Wyle 95¢
Current share
100%
Noah Wyle
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-NOA
Sterling K. Brown
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-STE
Gary Oldman
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-GAR
Mark Ruffalo
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-MAR
Walton Goggins
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-WAL
Peter Claffey
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-PET
Rufus Sewell
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-RUF
Jon Hamm
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-JON
Billy Bob Thornton
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-BIL
Tom Hiddleston
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-DACTO-TOM
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.