BTC trimmed mean above $70000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026
Above $70,000.00 is priced at 27¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 7 inside Will BTC trimmed mean be above $.
Price history
27¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026 is ever above $ 70000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $70,000.00
Rank
#2 of 7
Leader
Above $67,500.00 50¢
Range
1¢-50¢
Family volume
$108K
Identifier
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-7000000
Aug 7, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$19K
Family rank
#2 of 7
7 outcomes · Will BTC trimmed mean be above $
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Family volume
$108K
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026 is ever above $ 70000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Identifier
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-7000000
Event family
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$108K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Above $67,500.00 50¢
Current share
17%
Above $67,500.00
kalshi · KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-6750000
Above $70,000.00
kalshi · KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-7000000
Above $72,500.00
kalshi · KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-7250000
Above $75,000.00
kalshi · KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-7500000
Above $77,500.00
kalshi · KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-7750000
Above $80,000.00
kalshi · KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-8000000
Above $82,500.00
kalshi · KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-8250000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
How Bitcoin & Ethereum Crypto 2026 Price Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Leg of the Cycle
Deep-dive for crypto investors and traders into Bitcoin and Ethereum 2026 price prediction markets. Learn how BTC/ETH halving base rates, ETF flows, DeFi/L2 growth, and global regulation shape market-implied odds for 2026 price targets.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident
A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 27% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.