Will Centre Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election
Will Centre Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
37¢ current
+15¢Contract brief
If Centre Party finishes in 4th place in the 2026 Swedish general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Centre Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXSWEDEN4TH-26SEP13-4-CENTRE
Sep 7, 2026, 5:09 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$100
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 40¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Centre Party finishes in 4th place in the 2026 Swedish general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Identifier
KXSWEDEN4TH-26SEP13-4-CENTRE
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Centre Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election 37¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 37% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.