Will Green Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$148
4 contracts
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
374 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Left Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election
Will Left Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?: Left Party
KXSWEDEN4TH-26SEP13-4-LEFT
Cluster 2
Will Centre Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election
Will Centre Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?: Centre Party
KXSWEDEN4TH-26SEP13-4-CENTRE
Cluster 3
Will Green Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election
Will Green Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?: Green Party
KXSWEDEN4TH-26SEP13-4-GREEN
Cluster 4
Will Christian Democrats finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election
Analysis
This measures the likelihood that the Green Party will receive the fourth-largest vote share in Sweden's 2026 general election. At 20%, it reflects moderate uncertainty about whether Greens will rank fourth among Sweden's parliamentary parties. The probability is primarily driven by recent polling trends and the competitive middle tier of Swedish politics, where several parties—including Centre, Left, and Christian Democrats—cluster in similar vote ranges. Resolution depends on actual election results scheduled for 2026, when official vote totals will definitively determine each party's ranking. Currently, the Left Party (32¢) and Centre Party (23¢) are favored as more likely fourth-place finishers, suggesting markets view Green Party performance as slightly weaker than these competitors in the current cycle.
- ›Recent polling data showing Green Party support levels relative to Centre Party, Left Party, and Christian Democrats
- ›Historical voting patterns in Swedish elections and whether third-place and fifth-place parties have been consolidating or fragmenting
- ›Voter turnout assumptions, as different demographic groups may shift overall party rankings
- ›Campaign dynamics and media coverage between now and election day that could shift support among mid-tier parties
- ›Immigration and climate policy salience in the 2026 campaign, which typically affects Green Party relative performance
What moved the line
- Sep 2Left Party↓3pp31→28¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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