SimpleFunctions

Charles Johnson · KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27ALMJOH

Charles Johnson is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27ALMJOH.

Price history

28¢ current

4¢
30¢
Jun 21, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Charles Johnson wins the Almabayev vs Johnson professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Charles Johnson

Rank

#2 of 2

Leader

Asu Almabayev 71¢

Range

27¢-71¢

Family volume

$10K

Identifier

KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27ALMJOH-JOH

Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 2m ago

Implied probability

28¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 2m ago

Bid

27¢

Ask

28¢

Spread

24h volume

$4K

Family rank

#2 of 2

2 outcomes · KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27ALMJOH

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Family volume

$10K

Orderbook snapshot

27 / 28¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
27¢595
26¢2.0K
25¢1.6K
24¢547
10¢406
AskSize
28¢163
29¢2.7K
30¢3.0K
31¢2.9K
32¢2.5K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Charles Johnson wins the Almabayev vs Johnson professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Identifier

KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27ALMJOH-JOH

SF Signal
SF Index
5916.32
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27ALMJOH.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$10K

Outcomes

2

Highest price

Asu Almabayev 71¢

Current share

38%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

6143.6%

IY (No)

840.4%

Adj IY

5916%

CRI

3

RV

226%

VR

0.30

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

6143.6%
840.4%
Adj IY
5916%
3
RV
226%
VR
0.30
IAR
0.4/h
LAS
0.04

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.