Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
7¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$33.5M
Identifier
0xd9fb1184...e6d4
Jun 7, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$440K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$33.5M
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xd9fb1184…e6d4
Event family
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$33.5M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 7¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.