Before Jan 1, 2030 · Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 20
Before Jan 1, 2030 is priced at 72¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 72¢ bid, 75¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 20.
Price history
72¢ current
+23¢Contract brief
If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2030
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2030 72¢
Range
15¢-72¢
Family volume
$6
Identifier
KXCHINAEUV-30-30JAN01
Jul 22, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
72¢
Ask
75¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$28
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 20
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$6
Orderbook snapshot
72 / 75¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXCHINAEUV-30-30JAN01
Event family
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 20.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2030 72¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.