Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 72% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2030
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
Before Jan 1, 2029
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1257 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 20
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029
KXCHINAEUV-30-29JAN01
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030
KXCHINAEUV-30-30JAN01
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXCHINAEUV-30-28JAN01
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXCHINAEUV-30-27JAN01
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 71% likelihood that China will develop a functional EUV lithography machine capable of manufacturing semiconductors by January 2030, but only a 16% chance this occurs by end-2026. EUV lithography represents the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology; China currently lacks domestic capability and faces U.S. export controls on equipment. The timeline reflects uncertainty about both technical feasibility and geopolitical constraints. Key drivers include China's semiconductor R&D investments, ASML's monopoly on current commercial EUV systems, and whether Beijing can either independently develop the technology or acquire critical components despite restrictions. The gap between the 2027 contract (16¢) and 2030 contract (71¢) suggests markets view near-term breakthroughs as unlikely but believe meaningful progress becomes more probable with a 3-4 year window.
- ›China's existing EUV prototype status: whether demonstrated machines are truly functional or remain lab-stage development
- ›U.S. export control effectiveness: degree to which sanctions prevent China from acquiring foreign components, materials, or technical expertise
- ›Third-country access channels: availability of critical semiconductor manufacturing inputs from Netherlands, Japan, or other non-U.S. suppliers
- ›International verification of claims: how China would confirm operational capability to external observers given security sensitivity
- ›ASML's technological lead: whether competitors can feasibly close the gap or if the Dutch monopoly remains insurmountable within the timeframe
What moved the line
- Jul 19Before Jan 1, 2030↑16pp56→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp16→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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