Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas?

This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing Davis at 31¢ versus Polymarket's 38¢—a 7-cent gap suggesting potential mispricing or venue-specific liquidity differences. The extremely high implied yield of 205% on the Yes side contrasts sharply with the 20.5% yield on No, indicating the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty despite the long 563-day timeframe, though the thin $795 open interest and 9-cent spread raise concerns about execution liquidity for larger positions. The realized volatility of 324% and elevated cliff risk index of 3 suggest this market has experienced sharp moves, though the recent modest price appreciation from 21¢ to 24¢ over seven days and neutral regime score indicate no clear directional momentum currently.

Resolution rules

If Christy Davis wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Kansas Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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