Count Binface Party receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election
At least 25% is priced at 31¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 30¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 6 inside Will Count Binface Party receive at least.
Price history
31¢ current
+26¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Count Binface Party in the 2026 Clacton by-election is 25% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 25%
Rank
#5 of 6
Leader
At least 5% 83¢
Range
24¢-83¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-62
Jul 13, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 58m ago
Implied probability
Bid
30¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#5 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Count Binface Party receive at least
Closes
Sep 1, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
30 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Count Binface Party in the 2026 Clacton by-election is 25% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-62
Event family
Will Count Binface Party receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
At least 5% 83¢
Current share
27%
At least 5%
kalshi · KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-52
At least 10%
kalshi · KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-55
At least 15%
kalshi · KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-57
At least 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-60
At least 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-62
At least 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-65
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.