Will Count Binface Party receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Leader sits at 87% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 77%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 5%
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
77¢
At least 10%
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Count Binface Party receive at least
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 20%
KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-60
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 25%
KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-62
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 30%
KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-65
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 5%
KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-52
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 15%
KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-57
Will Count Binface Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 10%
KXVOTEPERCENTBINFACE-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01CBIN-55
Analysis
This measures whether Count Binface Party will exceed 20% of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election. The 79% probability on the 5% threshold (already received) but only 58% on the 20% threshold suggests traders believe the party will clear modest performance targets but face a steeper climb toward plurality-level support. The gap between price levels reflects uncertainty: reaching 15% appears moderately likely at 68%, while topping 20% requires either significant momentum from the party's current position or a fragmented opposing vote. The main resolution driver is the election itself; movements before that date would reflect polling data, candidate positioning, and local campaign activity. Election day will definitively measure actual vote share against these benchmarks.
- ›Current polling and vote intention surveys in Clacton ward specifically, rather than national averages
- ›Turnout levels among potential Binface supporters relative to other candidates' bases
- ›Whether the party can sustain or grow from any previously demonstrated local support in this constituency
- ›Strength and fragmentation of opposition candidates—whether votes concentrate among rivals or split across multiple contenders
- ›Date of the by-election announcement and campaign duration, which affects time available for voter persuasion
What moved the line
- Jul 9At least 15%↑22pp46→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9At least 5%↑21pp61→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9At least 10%↑18pp56→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9At least 20%↑15pp43→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9At least 25%↑10pp29→39¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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