Will Zion Williamson be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$461
20 contracts
Closes
Feb 12, 2027
175 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Anthony” vs “Will Donovan Mitchell be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Anthony
Cluster 2
Will Donovan Mitchell be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Cluster 3
Will Trey Murphy be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Trey Murphy be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Trey Murphy
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-TMURPHY25
Cluster 4
Will Brandon Ingram be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Brandon Ingram be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Brandon Ingram
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-BINGRAM3
Cluster 5
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Cluster 6
Will Kawhi Leonard be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Kawhi Leonard be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Kawhi Leonard
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-KLEONARD2
Cluster 7
Will Kristaps Porzingis be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Cluster 8
Will Derrick White be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Derrick White be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Derrick White
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-DWHITE9
Cluster 9
Will Rudy Gobert be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Rudy Gobert be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Rudy Gobert
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-RGOBERT27
Cluster 10
Will Jimmy Butler be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Jimmy Butler be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Jimmy Butler
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-JBUTLER10
Cluster 11
Will Jalen Duren be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Jalen Duren be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Jalen Duren
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-JDUREN0
Cluster 12
Will Aaron Gordon be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Aaron Gordon be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Aaron Gordon
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-AGORDON32
Cluster 13
Will Andrew Wiggins be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Andrew Wiggins be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Andrew Wiggins
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-AWIGGINS22
Cluster 14
Will Dillon Brooks be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Dillon Brooks be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Dillon Brooks
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-DBROOKS3
Cluster 15
Will Dyson Daniels be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Dyson Daniels be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Dyson Daniels
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-DDANIELS5
Cluster 16
Will DeMar DeRozan be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will DeMar DeRozan be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: DeMar DeRozan
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-DDEROZAN10
Cluster 17
Will Donte DiVincenzo be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Cluster 18
Will De'Aaron Fox be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will De'Aaron Fox be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: De'Aaron Fox
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-DFOX4
Cluster 19
Will Daniel Gafford be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Daniel Gafford be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Daniel Gafford
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-DGAFFORD21
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 5% chance that Zion Williamson will be traded between now and February 12, 2027. The low probability reflects Williamson's status as a cornerstone player for the New Orleans Pelicans and the lack of public indication that the franchise intends to move him. The main factors keeping this probability low are his recent contract extension and the Pelicans' stated commitment to building around him. The probability could rise if the Pelicans suffer significant injuries, miss the playoffs, or if Williamson's own injury history causes front-office reassessment. The key event to monitor is the Pelicans' performance and health through the 2026-27 season, particularly any announcements from team management regarding roster direction.
- ›Williamson signed a multi-year supermax extension with the Pelicans in 2023, signaling long-term organizational commitment
- ›Williamson has missed substantial time due to recurring injuries (foot, hamstring), which could influence trade discussions if durability concerns escalate
- ›New Orleans' playoff performance and win-loss record through mid-February would indicate whether the front office views a roster change as necessary
- ›No credible reporting from league sources has suggested the Pelicans are exploring trade options for Williamson as of mid-2026
- ›Similar guards on comparable long-term deals traded recently (Joe, Dort) had lower market prices, suggesting limited bidding appetite even for star players with injury concerns
What moved the line
- Aug 14Domantas Sabonis↑39pp11→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14Donovan Mitchell↓35pp49→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Brandon Ingram↑31pp46→77¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14Brandon Ingram↑30pp16→46¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Rudy Gobert↑27pp20→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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