Will Zion Williamson be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+6pp
23h ago
24h volume
$108
7 contracts
Closes
Feb 12, 2027
232 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jaylen Brown be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Jaylen Brown be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Jaylen Brown
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-JBROWN7
Cluster 2
Will Trey Murphy be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Trey Murphy be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Trey Murphy
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-TMURPHY25
Cluster 3
Will Ja Morant be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Ja Morant be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Ja Morant
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-JMORANT12
Cluster 4
Will Nic Claxton be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Nic Claxton be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Nic Claxton
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-NCLAXTON33
Cluster 5
Will Donte DiVincenzo be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Cluster 6
Will De'Aaron Fox be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will De'Aaron Fox be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: De'Aaron Fox
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-DFOX4
Cluster 7
Will Daniel Gafford be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027
Will Daniel Gafford be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Daniel Gafford
KXNBATRADE-27FEB12-DGAFFORD21
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 5% chance that Zion Williamson will be traded between now and February 12, 2027. The low probability reflects Williamson's status as a cornerstone player for the New Orleans Pelicans and the lack of public indication that the franchise intends to move him. The main factors keeping this probability low are his recent contract extension and the Pelicans' stated commitment to building around him. The probability could rise if the Pelicans suffer significant injuries, miss the playoffs, or if Williamson's own injury history causes front-office reassessment. The key event to monitor is the Pelicans' performance and health through the 2026-27 season, particularly any announcements from team management regarding roster direction.
- ›Williamson signed a multi-year supermax extension with the Pelicans in 2023, signaling long-term organizational commitment
- ›Williamson has missed substantial time due to recurring injuries (foot, hamstring), which could influence trade discussions if durability concerns escalate
- ›New Orleans' playoff performance and win-loss record through mid-February would indicate whether the front office views a roster change as necessary
- ›No credible reporting from league sources has suggested the Pelicans are exploring trade options for Williamson as of mid-2026
- ›Similar guards on comparable long-term deals traded recently (Joe, Dort) had lower market prices, suggesting limited bidding appetite even for star players with injury concerns
What moved the line
- Jun 24Ja Morant↓39pp53→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Trey Murphy↓28pp43→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Jaylen Brown↓23pp31→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Nic Claxton↑14pp22→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Daniel Gafford↓10pp13→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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