Daniel Radcliffe · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29
Daniel Radcliffe is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #16 of 16 inside KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29.
Price history
17¢ current
−8¢Contract brief
If Daniel Radcliffe is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Daniel Radcliffe
Rank
#16 of 16
Leader
Charles Melton 50¢
Range
7¢-50¢
Family volume
$785
Identifier
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DAN
Aug 7, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$707
Family rank
#16 of 16
16 outcomes · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Family volume
$785
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Daniel Radcliffe is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DAN
Event family
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$785
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Charles Melton 50¢
Current share
0%
Charles Melton
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-CHA
Hugh Jackman
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HUG
Ayo Edebiri
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-AYO
Julia Butters
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JUL
Harris Dickinson
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HAR
Colman Domingo
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-COL
Adam Driver
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-ADA
Jacob Elordi
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JAC
Hunter Schafer
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HUN
Pedro Pascal
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-PED
Kit Connor
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-KIT
Glen Powell
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-GLE
Austin Butler
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-AUS
Denzel Washington
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DEN
Sophie Turner
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-SOP
Daniel Radcliffe
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DAN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.