Will Sadie Sink be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$531
17 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
878 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Glen Powell be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 2
Will Julia Butters be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 3
Will Jacob Elordi be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 4
Will Hugh Jackman be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 5
Will Harris Dickinson be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 6
Will Colman Domingo be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 7
Will Sophie Turner be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 8
Will Ayo Edebiri be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 9
Will Sadie Sink be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 10
Will Austin Butler be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 11
Will Daniel Radcliffe be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 12
Will Denzel Washington be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 13
Will Evan Peters be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 14
Will Hunter Schafer be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 15
Will Ian McKellen be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 16
Will James McAvoy be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Cluster 17
Will Jesse Plemons be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Analysis
This contract reflects the estimated likelihood that actress Sadie Sink will be cast in Marvel Studios' next theatrical X-Men film. The 5% probability suggests markets view her casting as unlikely relative to other potential candidates, as shown by comparable contracts pricing Harris Dickinson at 7%. The probability would rise if credible reporting indicated Marvel was pursuing Sink for a specific mutant role, or if industry insiders confirmed her involvement in upcoming X-Men casting announcements. It would fall if Marvel officially cast competing actors or announced X-Men film timelines that excluded her. The key uncertainty driver is the timing and scope of Marvel's next mutant-focused film—currently unscheduled with no announced cast. Resolution will depend on official Marvel Studios announcements regarding X-Men project greenlight and cast reveals, likely occurring at major studios events or through trade publications.
- ›No X-Men film has been officially announced by Marvel Studios with production timeline or cast as of July 2026
- ›Sink's primary recent visibility derives from Stranger Things; comparable young actors being priced 7% or higher suggests her odds reflect limited perceived alignment with Marvel's likely casting direction
- ›Marvel's track record shows casting decisions for major ensemble properties involve A-list or emerging action-adjacent talent, creating competitive disadvantage for most individual candidates
- ›The contract's 5% baseline appears consistent with general background probability for any single actor in an unannounced casting pool of 50+ viable candidates
- ›Harris Dickinson at 7% represents the current market's highest-priced individual actor, suggesting market uncertainty about Marvel's specific casting preferences
What moved the line
- Aug 1Harris Dickinson↓24pp29→5¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Evan Peters↓20pp27→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Sadie Sink↓18pp86→68¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Ayo Edebiri↓17pp30→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Hunter Schafer↓17pp23→6¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026last 46% · 0d
- Who will win the WA-4 primarylast 3% · 1d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026last 97% · 2d
- Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026last 89% · 5d
- Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.70last 97% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.