Darializa Avila Chevalier receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary
At least 50% is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 41¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 6 inside Will Darializa Avila Chevalier receive at least.
Price history
95¢ current
+45¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Darializa Avila Chevalier in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 50%
Rank
#4 of 6
Leader
At least 40% 98¢
Range
1¢-98¢
Family volume
$11K
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-NY13D26DCHEDCHE-75
Jun 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
76¢
Spread
41¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#4 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Darializa Avila Chevalier receive at least
Closes
Jun 23, 2027
Family volume
$11K
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 76¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Darializa Avila Chevalier in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 23, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-NY13D26DCHEDCHE-75
Event family
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$11K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
At least 40% 98¢
Current share
30%
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-NY13D26DCHEDCHE-70
At least 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-NY13D26DCHEDCHE-72
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-NY13D26DCHEDCHE-67
At least 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-NY13D26DCHEDCHE-75
At least 55%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-NY13D26DCHEDCHE-77
At least 60%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-NY13D26DCHEDCHE-80
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 95% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.