Darline Graham Nordone receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary
At least 30% is priced at 56¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 52¢ bid, 57¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside Will Darline Graham Nordone receive at least.
Price history
56¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Darline Graham Nordone in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary is 30% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 30%
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
At least 20% 94¢
Range
1¢-94¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-65
Aug 9, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
52¢
Ask
57¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$534
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · Will Darline Graham Nordone receive at least
Closes
Aug 11, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
52 / 57¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Darline Graham Nordone in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary is 30% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 11, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-65
Event family
Will Darline Graham Nordone receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
At least 20% 94¢
Current share
22%
At least 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-60
At least 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-62
At least 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-65
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-67
At least 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-75
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-70
At least 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-72
At least 60%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-80
At least 70%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DNORDNOR-85
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.