Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite nearly $1k open interest, suggesting trapped positions or minimal trader interest in Flippo's nomination odds.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite nearly $1k open interest, suggesting trapped positions or minimal trader interest in Flippo's nomination odds. The 473% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high relative to the 14¢ price and 566-day timeframe, indicating either significant mispricing or high perceived tail risk, though the 7¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest the market lacks conviction. With a Cliff Risk Index of 7 and resolution tied to a 2026 primary outcome, this contract carries meaningful event risk but appears to be a niche bet with limited price discovery.
Resolution rules
If David Flippo wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NV-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNVPRIMARY-02R26-DFLI yes 100