Will David Valadao place first in the 2026 CA-22 primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will David Valadao place first in the 2026 CA-22 primary?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 13¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 13¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—10.6% for Yes versus 398.2% for No—suggest severe mispricing or a complete absence of market participants willing to take either side at current levels. With 563 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this market lacks sufficient depth to serve as a meaningful probability estimate for Valadao's primary prospects.
Resolution rules
If David Valadao wins the the 2026 CA-22 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCAPRIMARY-22FIRST26-DVAL yes 100