Will Democrats win Iowa, Ohio
Leader sits at 26% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Democratic sweep
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Republican sweep
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$15
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
412 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win
Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Ohio?: Texas, Alaska, Ohio
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTFT
Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska?: Texas, Alaska
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTFF
Will Democrats win Texas, Ohio?: Texas, Ohio
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TFFT
Will Democrats win Texas?: Texas
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TFFF
Will Democrats win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio?: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTTT
Will Democrats win Alaska?: Alaska
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTFF
Will Democrats win Ohio?: Ohio
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FFFT
Will Democrats win None?: Republican sweep
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FFFF
Will Democrats win All 4?: Democratic sweep
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTTT
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Democrats will win both Iowa and Ohio in the 2026 election cycle. At 35%, the Republican sweep scenario is currently favored, suggesting markets view these states as leaning Republican. The current level reflects historical voting patterns in both states—Iowa and Ohio have voted Republican in recent presidential cycles—combined with demographic trends and early polling signals. Movements in this probability would likely respond to shifts in national sentiment, economic indicators before the election, and performance of Democratic or Republican candidates in these specific states. The main catalyst shaping this probability will be campaign developments and polling movements as the election approaches, with particular sensitivity to any major national events affecting voter preferences.
- ›Iowa and Ohio have voted Republican in the last two presidential cycles (2016, 2020), establishing a baseline expectation favoring GOP performance
- ›The 35% Democratic outcome is split across multiple contracts, with 'no wins' (Republican sweep) and a single-state Democratic win tied as co-leaders, indicating market uncertainty about which specific outcome dominates
- ›Kalshi contract volume is relatively modest ($264–$332 in 24h volume per top contracts), suggesting limited price discovery and potential for shifts as market participation increases
- ›The number of possible outcomes (9 separate contracts) spreads probability mass thinly, with most individual scenarios trading at or near 3¢, reflecting low confidence in any single Democratic path through these states
What moved the line
- Sep 12Republican sweep↓14pp16→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Democratic sweep↑5pp21→26¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Texas, Alaska, Ohio↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Texas, Alaska↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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