Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada
Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada is priced at 23¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
23¢ current
−11¢Contract brief
If Democrats win the governorships of ALL of the following states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$24K
Identifier
KXDEMSWINGSTATEGOVSWEEP-26NOV03
Aug 9, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$17
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$24K
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Democrats win the governorships of ALL of the following states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXDEMSWINGSTATEGOVSWEEP-26NOV03
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$24K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada 23¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.