Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. Derek Dooley's nomination odds have collapsed 50% over the past week, dropping from 8¢ to 3¢, suggesting either new information about his candidacy or shifting market sentiment toward other Republican contenders.
Analysis
Derek Dooley's nomination odds have collapsed 50% over the past week, dropping from 8¢ to 3¢, suggesting either new information about his candidacy or shifting market sentiment toward other Republican contenders. The extreme 4366% implied yield on a Yes resolution reflects the massive asymmetry between the 3¢ price and potential payout, though this is tempered by zero 24-hour volume and a relatively thin $9,551 open interest, indicating low liquidity and potential difficulty executing at posted prices. With 201 days until the November 2026 close and a notable 3.76 volatility ratio, this market appears to be pricing in Dooley as a long-shot candidate, but the illiquidity and recent sharp price movement warrant caution on the reliability of the current quote.
Also on polymarket at 8¢(Δ -1¢)
Resolution rules
If Derek Dooley wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Georgia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEGAR-26-DDOO yes 100