Die Linke receive at least 22% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election
At least 22% is priced at 54¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 61¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will Die Linke receive at least.
Price history
54¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by Die Linke in the 2026 Berlin state election is 22% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 22%
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
At least 22% 6¢
Range
2¢-6¢
Family volume
$9
Identifier
KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20DLIN-22
Sep 20, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
67¢
Spread
61¢
24h volume
$4
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Die Linke receive at least
Closes
Sep 20, 2027
Family volume
$9
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 67¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by Die Linke in the 2026 Berlin state election is 22% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 20, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20DLIN-22
Event family
Will Die Linke receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9
Outcomes
6
Highest price
At least 22% 6¢
Current share
42%
At least 22%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20DLIN-22
At least 24%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20DLIN-24
At least 16%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20DLIN-16
At least 18%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20DLIN-18
At least 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20DLIN-20
At least 26%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20DLIN-26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.