Category 3 or above · Will Dolly become a Category
Category 3 or above is priced at 48¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 48¢ ask, 40¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Will Dolly become a Category.
Price history
48¢ current
+42¢Contract brief
If Dolly reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 111 mph, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Category 3 or above
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Category 1 or above 14¢
Range
2¢-14¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXHURCAT-26DOLLY-T3
Aug 24, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
48¢
Spread
40¢
Reported volume
$20
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Will Dolly become a Category
Closes
Dec 2, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 48¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Dolly reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 111 mph, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 2, 2026
Identifier
KXHURCAT-26DOLLY-T3
Event family
Will Dolly become a Category.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Category 1 or above 14¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.