Before Oct 1, 2027 · Will Don Toliver release new album before
Before Oct 1, 2027 is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will Don Toliver release new album before.
Price history
95¢ current
+46¢Contract brief
If Don Toliver releases a new album before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Oct 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
Before Oct 1, 2027 89¢
Range
19¢-89¢
Family volume
$366
Identifier
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27OCT01
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$1
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Don Toliver release new album before
Closes
Oct 1, 2027
Family volume
$366
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 96¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Don Toliver releases a new album before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2027
Identifier
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27OCT01
Event family
Will Don Toliver release new album before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$366
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Before Oct 1, 2027 89¢
Current share
0%
Before Oct 1, 2027
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27OCT01
Before Aug 1, 2027
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27AUG01
Before Jun 1, 2027
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27JUN01
Before Apr 1, 2027
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27APR01
Before Feb 1, 2027
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27FEB01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-26DEC01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 95% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.