Will Don Toliver release new album before Oct 1, 2027
Leader sits at 93% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Oct 1, 2027
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
Before Aug 1, 2027
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 1, 2027
419 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Don Toliver release new album before
Will Don Toliver release new album before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-26DEC01
Will Don Toliver release new album before Oct 1, 2027?: Before Oct 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27OCT01
Will Don Toliver release new album before Jun 1, 2027?: Before Jun 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27JUN01
Will Don Toliver release new album before Feb 1, 2027?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27FEB01
Will Don Toliver release new album before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27AUG01
Will Don Toliver release new album before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWDON-27APR01
Analysis
This market estimates a 49% probability that Don Toliver releases a new album by October 1, 2027. The probability reflects uncertainty about his release timeline, as markets on earlier dates (December 2026, February 2027) show progressively lower prices, suggesting traders view a near-term release as less likely. The main drivers of this probability are Toliver's historical release cadence and any public announcements regarding new music. A key catalyst would be an official album announcement or release date confirmation, which would immediately resolve the uncertainty. Without clear signals, traders are essentially split on whether he will meet the October 2027 deadline. The declining probabilities across earlier contract dates indicate traders are pricing in the possibility of a release later in 2027 but with meaningful doubt about the full timeline.
- ›Don Toliver's previous album release history and average time between projects
- ›Any public statements, social media activity, or label announcements regarding upcoming music
- ›Industry release schedules and typical promotional timelines for major label albums
- ›The gap between current date (August 2026) and the resolution date (October 2027) allows roughly 14 months for a release
- ›Comparison across Kalshi contracts shows progressively higher probabilities as the deadline extends further, suggesting traders expect a release but with considerable uncertainty about timing
What moved the line
- Aug 6Before Oct 1, 2027↑33pp60→93¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Before Aug 1, 2027↑29pp58→87¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Before Jun 1, 2027↑16pp48→64¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Before Apr 1, 2027↑9pp44→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Before Feb 1, 2027↑8pp36→44¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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