Donald J. Trump Jr · Will Donald Trump endorse
Donald J. Trump Jr. is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 6 inside Will Donald Trump endorse.
Price history
6¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump publicly endorses Donald J. Trump Jr. in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Rank
#5 of 6
Leader
J.D. Vance 45¢
Range
1¢-45¢
Family volume
$1
Identifier
KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-DJR
Aug 9, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$530
Family rank
#5 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Donald Trump endorse
Closes
Mar 1, 2028
Family volume
$1
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump publicly endorses Donald J. Trump Jr. in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Mar 1, 2028
Identifier
KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-DJR
Event family
Will Donald Trump endorse.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1
Outcomes
6
Highest price
J.D. Vance 45¢
Current share
0%
J.D. Vance
kalshi · KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-JVAN
Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-MRUB
No one
kalshi · KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-NOONE
Himself
kalshi · KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
kalshi · KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-DJR
Ron DeSantis
kalshi · KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-RDES
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds
In-depth look at Gavin Newsom’s status in December 2025, his California record, and what prediction markets are signaling about his 2028 presidential chances.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 6% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.