Donald Trump issue any executive action on establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before.
Price history
35¢ current
+14¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 31¢
Range
14¢-31¢
Family volume
$8
Identifier
KXAIREVIEW-26JUN-JAN01
Jun 22, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$3
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$8
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 35¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXAIREVIEW-26JUN-JAN01
Event family
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 31¢
Current share
34%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 35% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.