Donald Trump make between 200 and 219 Truth Social posts the week of Aug 9, 2026
200-219 is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 15¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 10 inside Will Donald Trump make.
Price history
19¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from Aug 9, 2026 to Aug 15, 2026 is between 200 and 219, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
200-219
Rank
#2 of 10
Leader
180-199 19¢
Range
1¢-19¢
Family volume
$17K
Identifier
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-B209
Aug 9, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
15¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#2 of 10
10 outcomes · Will Donald Trump make
Closes
Aug 16, 2026
Family volume
$17K
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from Aug 9, 2026 to Aug 15, 2026 is between 200 and 219, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 16, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-B209
Event family
Will Donald Trump make.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$17K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
180-199 19¢
Current share
14%
180-199
kalshi · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-B189
200-219
kalshi · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-B209
160-179
kalshi · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-B169
140-159
kalshi · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-B149
120-139
kalshi · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-B129
220-240
kalshi · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-B230
>240
kalshi · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-T240
100-119
kalshi · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-B109
<80
kalshi · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-T80
80-99
kalshi · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG15-B89
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.