Montana · Will Donald Trump visit
Montana is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 33¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 7 inside Will Donald Trump visit.
Price history
30¢ current
−6¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Montana after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Montana
Rank
#7 of 7
Leader
Alaska 82¢
Range
2¢-82¢
Family volume
$137
Identifier
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-MT
Sep 22, 2026, 10:58 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
33¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$295
Family rank
#7 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Donald Trump visit
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$137
Orderbook snapshot
33 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Montana after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-MT
Event family
Will Donald Trump visit.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$137
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Alaska 82¢
Current share
0%
Alaska
kalshi · KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-AK
Iowa
kalshi · KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-IA
Minnesota
kalshi · KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-MN
Kansas
kalshi · KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-KS
Colorado
kalshi · KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-CO
Hawaii
kalshi · KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-HI
Montana
kalshi · KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-MT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 30% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.