Elena Del Real · KXWYPRIMARY-ALD26
Elena Del Real is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside KXWYPRIMARY-ALD26.
Price history
9¢ current
−40¢Contract brief
If Elena Del Real wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 WY-AL House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Elena Del Real
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Lisa Kinney 90¢
Range
9¢-90¢
Family volume
$2
Identifier
KXWYPRIMARY-ALD26-EREA
Jun 24, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · KXWYPRIMARY-ALD26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$2
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Elena Del Real wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 WY-AL House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXWYPRIMARY-ALD26-EREA
Event family
KXWYPRIMARY-ALD26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Lisa Kinney 90¢
Current share
50%
Lisa Kinney
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALD26-LKIN
Elena Del Real
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALD26-EREA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.