Will Steve Friess be the Republican nominee for WY-AL
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$52
6 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
498 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chuck Gray be the Republican nominee for WY-AL
Will Chuck Gray be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Chuck Gray
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-CGRA
Cluster 2
Will Lisa Kinney be the Democratic nominee for WY-AL
Will Lisa Kinney be the Democratic nominee for WY-AL?: Lisa Kinney
KXWYPRIMARY-ALD26-LKIN
Cluster 3
Will Elena Del Real be the Democratic nominee for WY-AL
Will Elena Del Real be the Democratic nominee for WY-AL?: Elena Del Real
KXWYPRIMARY-ALD26-EREA
Cluster 4
Will Frank Chapman be the Republican nominee for WY-AL
Will Frank Chapman be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Frank Chapman
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-FCHA
Cluster 5
Will Reid Rasner be the Republican nominee for WY-AL
Will Reid Rasner be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Reid Rasner
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-RRAS
Cluster 6
Will Steve Friess be the Republican nominee for WY-AL
Will Steve Friess be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Steve Friess
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-SFRI
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Steve Friess has a 25% chance of winning the Republican nomination for Wyoming's at-large congressional seat. Friess faces competition from candidates with higher current probabilities, including Chuck Gray and Reid Rasner who are both priced at 35%. The 25% probability would likely move based on campaign funding levels, endorsements from Wyoming Republican leadership, and primary turnout patterns. The Republican primary election will be the decisive event determining the nominee, scheduled for August 2026. Between now and then, candidate performance at public forums, fundraising announcements, and any shifts in party establishment support could significantly alter these probabilities.
- ›Chuck Gray and Reid Rasner are both priced 10 percentage points higher than Friess, indicating traders view them as stronger frontrunners for the nomination
- ›Trading volume on the Friess contract ($300 in 24h) substantially exceeds other candidates, suggesting more active price discovery for this particular outcome
- ›The August 2026 Wyoming Republican primary election will directly determine the nominee and fully resolve this contract
- ›No recent high-profile endorsements, campaign events, or funding announcements appear reflected in the current pricing differential between top candidates
- ›Giralt is priced at only 10% despite being listed as an alternative nominee option, suggesting limited trader conviction in a three-way competitive scenario
What moved the line
- Jun 23Lisa Kinney↑26pp64→90¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Steve Friess↑7pp1→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Chuck Gray↓4pp55→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Steve Friess↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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