Will Steve Friess be the Republican nominee for WY-AL
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
458 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Steve Friess be the Republican nominee for WY-AL
Will Steve Friess be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Steve Friess
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-SFRI
Cluster 2
Will Chuck Gray be the Republican nominee for WY-AL
Will Chuck Gray be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Chuck Gray
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-CGRA
Cluster 3
Will Reid Rasner be the Republican nominee for WY-AL
Will Reid Rasner be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Reid Rasner
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-RRAS
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Steve Friess has a 25% chance of winning the Republican nomination for Wyoming's at-large congressional seat. Friess faces competition from candidates with higher current probabilities, including Chuck Gray and Reid Rasner who are both priced at 35%. The 25% probability would likely move based on campaign funding levels, endorsements from Wyoming Republican leadership, and primary turnout patterns. The Republican primary election will be the decisive event determining the nominee, scheduled for August 2026. Between now and then, candidate performance at public forums, fundraising announcements, and any shifts in party establishment support could significantly alter these probabilities.
- ›Chuck Gray and Reid Rasner are both priced 10 percentage points higher than Friess, indicating traders view them as stronger frontrunners for the nomination
- ›Trading volume on the Friess contract ($300 in 24h) substantially exceeds other candidates, suggesting more active price discovery for this particular outcome
- ›The August 2026 Wyoming Republican primary election will directly determine the nominee and fully resolve this contract
- ›No recent high-profile endorsements, campaign events, or funding announcements appear reflected in the current pricing differential between top candidates
- ›Giralt is priced at only 10% despite being listed as an alternative nominee option, suggesting limited trader conviction in a three-way competitive scenario
What moved the line
- Aug 1Steve Friess↑19pp19→38¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Chuck Gray↓17pp64→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 28Chuck Gray↑6pp59→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Steve Friess↓5pp24→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 27Chuck Gray↑5pp54→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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