Elif Eralp · KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01
Elif Eralp is priced at 53¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 51¢ bid, 52¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01.
Price history
53¢ current
+47¢Contract brief
If Elif Eralp wins the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Elif Eralp
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Elif Eralp 45¢
Range
1¢-45¢
Family volume
$873
Identifier
KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01-EERA
Sep 19, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
51¢
Ask
52¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$811
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01
Closes
Oct 1, 2027
Family volume
$873
Orderbook snapshot
51 / 52¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Elif Eralp wins the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2027
Identifier
KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01-EERA
Event family
KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$873
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Elif Eralp 45¢
Current share
87%
Elif Eralp
kalshi · KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01-EERA
Stefan Evers
kalshi · KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01-SEVE
Werner Graf
kalshi · KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01-WGRA
Kristin Brinker
kalshi · KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01-KBRI
Steffen Krach
kalshi · KXBERLINGOVMAYOR-26OCT01-SKRA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.