Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$620
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 1, 2027
379 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election
Cluster 2
Will Stefan Evers win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election
Cluster 3
Will Werner Graf win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Elif Eralp will become Governing Mayor of Berlin following the state election, as determined by the Berlin House of Representatives. The 4% estimate suggests markets view Eralp as a long-shot candidate relative to better-positioned frontrunners like Steffen Krach and Stefan Evers, who are trading at 5 cents. Movement in this probability would depend on shifts in polling data, coalition negotiations outcomes, and party performance in the upcoming election. The main catalyst driving resolution is the Berlin state election itself, after which the House of Representatives will vote to elect the next Governing Mayor. Current low trading volume across all mayoral candidates indicates limited market activity and potentially thin liquidity for these contracts.
- ›Eralp's current contract price of 4 cents ranks her below the two frontrunners (5 cents each) and equal to Werner Graf despite different party positioning and name recognition
- ›Berlin state election results will determine parliamentary composition and coalition possibilities, directly affecting which candidates remain viable for the mayoralty
- ›Post-election coalition negotiations between parties will determine which candidates can secure sufficient votes in the House of Representatives
- ›Comparison to other long-shot candidates (Brinker and Graf at 3 cents) provides market consensus on her relative chances versus lower-probability alternatives
- ›Trading volume of $0 across all mayoral contracts suggests minimal market participation and potential price discovery issues
What moved the line
- Sep 12Stefan Evers↑8pp17→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Elif Eralp↑6pp52→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Stefan Evers↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Werner Graf↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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