England wins 1st Half · KXWC1H-26JUL15ENGARG
England wins 1st Half is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside KXWC1H-26JUL15ENGARG.
Price history
28¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If England is the winner of the first half in the England vs Argentina professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 15, 2026 after 45 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
England wins 1st Half
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Tie 1st Half 46¢
Range
25¢-46¢
Family volume
$20K
Identifier
KXWC1H-26JUL15ENGARG-ENG
Jul 13, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$6K
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · KXWC1H-26JUL15ENGARG
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Family volume
$20K
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If England is the winner of the first half in the England vs Argentina professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 15, 2026 after 45 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Identifier
KXWC1H-26JUL15ENGARG-ENG
Event family
KXWC1H-26JUL15ENGARG.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Tie 1st Half 46¢
Current share
28%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.