Will Tie win the 1st Half

30-day trend

Analysis

A 29% tie probability in the 1st Half reflects the distribution of expectations across competing nations, with individual country win probabilities ranging from 6% to 44%. This aggregate suggests relatively balanced competitive outcomes or significant uncertainty about how the contest will unfold. The tie probability is inversely related to conviction in any single winner: if one nation's prospects strengthen, the tie probability typically declines as capital shifts to that outcome. Conversely, if conditions create more ambiguity about potential winners, tie odds may rise. The main drivers are the relative strength assessments of participating nations and any structural rules that affect the likelihood of identical scores or draws. Key upcoming developments would include any official announcement of final rules, participant confirmations, or historical precedent data that clarifies how often ties actually occur in comparable competitions.

• ›Individual country win probabilities sum to approximately 84%, leaving 16% unaccounted for in named outcomes, suggesting either unlisted competitors or structural uncertainty
• ›Japan carries the highest single-nation probability at 44%, making a Japanese victory the market's base case, while New Zealand at 6% is considered least likely among listed options
• ›The tie probability of 29% represents meaningful uncertainty about contest resolution, neither dominant nor negligible compared to leading individual outcomes
• ›Trading volume concentrated in Iran ($3106 24h vol) and Mexico ($2138 24h vol) suggests these nations drive current market dynamics and sentiment shifts
• ›No date or resolution event is specified in available data, indicating this market may depend on undefined temporal boundaries or announced competitive details

What moved the line

• Jun 21Netherlands↑9pp52→61¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Netherlands↑5pp61→66¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Germany↓4pp40→36¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21USA↑4pp32→36¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 17Algeria↑4pp19→23¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 0d
• Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 5d
• Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 6d
• Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 6d
• Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 6d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds