SimpleFunctions

England · KXUEFAEURO-28

England is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXUEFAEURO-28.

Price history

25¢ current

+23¢
0¢10¢20¢
Jul 16, 2026Jul 23, 2026

Contract brief

If England is the 2028 UEFA European Championship champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

England

Rank

#2 of 16

Leader

Spain 17¢

Range

1¢-17¢

Family volume

$589

Identifier

KXUEFAEURO-28-ENG

Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Implied probability

25¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Bid

15¢

Ask

24¢

Spread

Reported volume

$307

Family rank

#2 of 16

16 outcomes · KXUEFAEURO-28

Closes

Aug 15, 2028

Family volume

$589

Orderbook snapshot

15 / 24¢

Kalshi
9¢ spread
BidSize
15¢1
14¢14
13¢102
12¢2.2K
11¢7.3K
AskSize
24¢100
25¢800
26¢98
27¢420
39¢59

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If England is the 2028 UEFA European Championship champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 15, 2028

Identifier

KXUEFAEURO-28-ENG

SF Signal
SF Index
45.71
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

274.3%

IY (No)

8.5%

Adj IY

46%

CRI

6

Overround

-0.1%

LAS

0.67

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

274.3%
8.5%
Adj IY
46%
6
Overround
-0.1%
LAS
0.67

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.