Will Fumihiko Senoo win the 2026 Kagawa gubernatorial election
Will Fumihiko Senoo win the 2026 Kagawa gubernatorial election is priced at 36¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 71¢ ask, 70¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
36¢ current
Contract brief
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kagawa on August 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Kagawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Kagawa and Japan, including the Kagawa Prefecture Election Management Committee (https://www.pref.kagawa.lg.jp/senkyoi/index.html).
Outcome
Will Fumihiko Senoo win the 2026 Kagawa gubernatorial election
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
0x2321c712...bf5b
Aug 12, 2026, 5:24 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
71¢
Spread
70¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 30, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 71¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kagawa on August 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Kagawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Kagawa and Japan, including the Kagawa Prefecture Election Management Committee (https://www.pref.kagawa.lg.jp/senkyoi/index.html).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 30, 2026
Identifier
0x2321c712…bf5b
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Fumihiko Senoo win the 2026 Kagawa gubernatorial election 36¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 36% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.