Before Oct 1, 2027 · Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before
Before Oct 1, 2027 is priced at 73¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 74¢ bid, 80¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before.
Price history
73¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Oct 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Before Oct 1, 2027 74¢
Range
19¢-74¢
Family volume
$91
Identifier
KXNEWSOMRUN-28-27OCT01
Jun 24, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
74¢
Ask
80¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$187
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before
Closes
Oct 1, 2027
Family volume
$91
Orderbook snapshot
74 / 80¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2027
Identifier
KXNEWSOMRUN-28-27OCT01
Event family
Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$91
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Oct 1, 2027 74¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.