Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

The market is pricing a 21% probability of a Newsom presidential announcement by year-end 2026, but the extremely high implied yield on the Yes side (498%) combined with minimal liquidity ($307.61 open interest) and a tight 260-day timeframe suggests this is a low-conviction, thinly-traded position where small position sizes could drive outsized returns. The recent price movement from 17¢ to 22¢ over seven days indicates modest bullish momentum, though the 4¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest no clear directional consensus among traders. With a Cliff Risk Index of 4, there's meaningful uncertainty about how quickly sentiment could shift closer to the January 2027 resolution date.

Resolution rules

If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regime

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