Paxton defeats Talarico to win Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election
Paxton defeats Talarico is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 60¢ bid, 61¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner.
Price history
61¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If ALL of the following occur before Jan 2027: GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, General Election Winner: Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Paxton defeats Talarico
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Paxton defeats Talarico 60¢
Range
39¢-60¢
Family volume
$24
Identifier
KXTXSENOUTCOME-27JAN-PAXTAL
Jun 21, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
60¢
Ask
61¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$19
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner
Closes
Jan 3, 2028
Family volume
$24
Orderbook snapshot
60 / 61¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If ALL of the following occur before Jan 2027: GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, General Election Winner: Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2028
Identifier
KXTXSENOUTCOME-27JAN-PAXTAL
Event family
Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$24
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Paxton defeats Talarico 60¢
Current share
79%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.