Talarico defeats Paxton to win Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election
Talarico defeats Paxton is priced at 41¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 39¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner.
Price history
41¢ current
Contract brief
If ALL of the following occur before Jan 2027: GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Talarico defeats Paxton
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Paxton defeats Talarico 60¢
Range
39¢-60¢
Family volume
$60
Identifier
KXTXSENOUTCOME-27JAN-TALPAX
Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
39¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$50
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner
Closes
Jan 3, 2028
Family volume
$60
Orderbook snapshot
39 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If ALL of the following occur before Jan 2027: GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2028
Identifier
KXTXSENOUTCOME-27JAN-TALPAX
Event family
Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$60
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Paxton defeats Talarico 60¢
Current share
84%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.