Government of the UK report that Louise Haigh is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham
Louise Haigh is priced at 83¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 85¢ bid, 86¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Will Government of the UK report that.
Price history
83¢ current
+81¢Contract brief
If Louise Haigh is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Louise Haigh
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Ed Miliband 89¢
Range
13¢-89¢
Family volume
$95
Identifier
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-LHAI
Jul 12, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
85¢
Ask
86¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$22
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Government of the UK report that
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$95
Orderbook snapshot
85 / 86¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Louise Haigh is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-LHAI
Event family
Will Government of the UK report that.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$95
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Ed Miliband 89¢
Current share
0%
Ed Miliband
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-EMIL
Angela Rayner
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-ARAY
Heidi Alexander
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-HALE
Louise Haigh
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-LHAI
Jonathan Reynolds
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-JREY
John Healey
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-JHEA
David Lammy
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-DLAM
Darren Jones
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-DJON
Bridget Phillipson
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-BPHI
Alan Campbell
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-ACAM
Hilary Benn
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-HBEN
Ian Murray
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-IMUR
Jacqui Smith
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-JSMI
James Murray
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-JMUR
Dan Jarvis
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-DJAR
Catherine West
kalshi · KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-CWES
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 83% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.