Will Government of the UK report that Alan Campbell is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham
Leader sits at 91% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Angela Rayner
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Ed Miliband
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$256
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Government of the UK report that
Will Government of the UK report that Darren Jones is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Darren Jones
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-DJON
Will Government of the UK report that Heidi Alexander is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Heidi Alexander
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-HALE
Will Government of the UK report that Patrick Vallance is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Patrick Vallance
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-PVAL
Will Government of the UK report that David Lammy is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: David Lammy
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-DLAM
Will Government of the UK report that Louise Haigh is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Louise Haigh
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-LHAI
Will Government of the UK report that Keir Starmer is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Keir Starmer
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-KSTA
Will Government of the UK report that Jo Stevens is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Jo Stevens
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-JSTE
Will Government of the UK report that Jacqui Smith is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Jacqui Smith
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-JSMI
Will Government of the UK report that Jonathan Reynolds is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Jonathan Reynolds
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-JREY
Will Government of the UK report that Jess Phillips is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Jess Phillips
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-JPHI
Will Government of the UK report that James Murray is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: James Murray
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-JMUR
Will Government of the UK report that John Healey is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: John Healey
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-JHEA
Will Government of the UK report that Ian Murray is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Ian Murray
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-IMUR
Will Government of the UK report that Hilary Benn is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Hilary Benn
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-HBEN
Will Government of the UK report that Ed Miliband is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Ed Miliband
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-EMIL
Will Government of the UK report that Dan Jarvis is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Dan Jarvis
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-DJAR
Will Government of the UK report that Catherine West is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Catherine West
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-CWES
Will Government of the UK report that Bridget Phillipson is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Bridget Phillipson
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-BPHI
Will Government of the UK report that Angela Rayner is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Angela Rayner
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-ARAY
Will Government of the UK report that Alan Campbell is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Alan Campbell
KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-ACAM
Analysis
This contract predicts whether the UK Government will officially confirm Alan Campbell as a full Cabinet minister under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. At 40%, the market views this as unlikely compared to other potential Cabinet members like Angela Rayner (91%) and Heidi Alexander (87%). The lower probability reflects that Campbell currently holds a junior ministerial role and faces competition from senior Labour figures with stronger claims to Cabinet positions. The key driver is whether Burnham, if he becomes Prime Minister, prioritizes Campbell for a full Cabinet post versus other established senior MPs. Resolution depends on an official government announcement or the published Cabinet list following such a transition. The probability could shift significantly if Burnham's path to Number 10 becomes more or less certain, or if Campbell's political standing changes materially. The modest trading volume ($4 in 24-hour activity) suggests limited market attention to this specific outcome relative to higher-probability candidates.
- ›Alan Campbell's current role is a junior minister, not a full Cabinet position, making elevation to Cabinet less certain than for sitting senior MPs
- ›Angela Rayner at 91% and Heidi Alexander at 87% show the market favors more established figures for Cabinet roles under Burnham
- ›No scheduled Cabinet formation date is publicly set; the probability depends entirely on a hypothetical Burnham premiership occurring
- ›Campbell's South Ribble constituency aligns geographically with Burnham's Greater Manchester base, which could factor into patronage decisions
- ›Trading volume of only $4 in 24 hours suggests this contract has received minimal analyst attention compared to top candidates
What moved the line
- Jul 10David Lammy↑24pp25→49¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 0d
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 6, 2026last 65% · 2d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 6, 2026last 60% · 2d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 6, 2026last 86% · 2d
- Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026last 48% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.