Greece or Turkey · KXWCHOST-2038
Greece or Turkey is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 14 inside KXWCHOST-2038.
Price history
8¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If Greece or Turkey are announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup and confirmed by any of the Source Agencies, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Greece or Turkey
Rank
#10 of 14
Leader
USA 29¢
Range
3¢-29¢
Family volume
$175
Identifier
KXWCHOST-2038-GRTU
Jul 8, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$30
Family rank
#10 of 14
14 outcomes · KXWCHOST-2038
Closes
Jan 1, 2034
Family volume
$175
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Greece or Turkey are announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup and confirmed by any of the Source Agencies, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2034
Identifier
KXWCHOST-2038-GRTU
Event family
KXWCHOST-2038.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$175
Outcomes
14
Highest price
USA 29¢
Current share
0%
USA
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-USA
China
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-CHN
Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-AUCP
Australia or New Zealand
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-AUNE
France, Belgium or the Netherlands
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-FBN
Brazil, Colombia or Peru
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-BCP
Italy
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-ITA
United Kingdom or Ireland
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-UKIR
Germany
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-GER
Greece or Turkey
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-GRTU
Cambodia
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-CAM
Switzerland or Austria
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-SWAU
Egypt
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-EGY
Panama or Costa Rica
kalshi · KXWCHOST-2038-PACO
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 8% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.